When the Los Angeles Lakers tip off against the Minnesota Timberwolves at 9:30 p.m. EST on Wednesday, October 29, 2025, at Target Center, it won’t just be another early-season matchup. It’ll be a game defined by absences — and the unexpected heroes stepping into the spotlight. With both franchises missing their franchise cornerstones — Luka Doncic out for the Lakers and Anthony Edwards sidelined for Minnesota — the narrative has shifted from star power to resilience. And no one embodies that shift better than Austin Reaves, who’s erupted for 92 points in his last two games.
Star Power Missing, But Momentum Isn’t
The Minnesota Timberwolves enter this game as 7.5-point favorites, with most major sportsbooks — Sports Illustrated, CBS Sports, and BetUS.com — aligning on the same line: Timberwolves -7.5 (-105), Lakers +7.5 (-115). The over/under sits at 225.5. But here’s the twist: despite being favored, Minnesota is 0-4 against the spread this season. And they just lost by 13 points at home to Denver as 6.5-point underdogs. That’s not a team playing like a favorite. It’s a team missing its engine.
Without Anthony Edwards — out with a hamstring injury for at least two weeks — Minnesota’s offense has lost its rhythm. Their last game was a 127-114 defeat where they couldn’t close late. Their defense? Still solid. Their transition game? Stalled. And without Edwards, who averaged 26.4 points last season, they’re relying on D’Angelo Russell and Karl-Anthony Towns to carry more than they can handle.
Reaves Steps Up — and the Lakers Are Still Alive
Meanwhile, the Los Angeles Lakers are playing without Luka Doncic, who was acquired in a blockbuster trade last offseason. Doncic’s injury — a combination of ankle and knee issues — has forced a complete offensive reset. But instead of collapsing, the Lakers have found a new identity. Austin Reaves has become their go-to scorer, dropping 51 on Sacramento and 41 on Portland in back-to-back games. That’s not a fluke. That’s a breakout. And bettors are taking notice. BetUS.com’s analyst is betting Reaves over 29.5 points (-118), calling it "the safest play on the board."
And the numbers back it up. Reaves is averaging 30.3 points per game over his last three, with a 48% clip from three. He’s not just scoring — he’s creating. In the Lakers’ 128-110 win over Minnesota last week — the one where Doncic dropped 49 points, 11 rebounds, and 8 assists — Reaves was the unsung hero with 27 points and 7 assists. Now, without Doncic, he’s the main attraction. And the betting public? They’re skeptical of Minnesota covering the spread. Even BetUS.com’s analyst predicts a 117-114 Lakers win, backing the +7.5 spread at -110.
Why the Discrepancy? Wagertalk’s Odd Spread
One outlier stands out: a YouTube video from Wagertalk.com, titled "No LeBron, Luka or Edwards!? | BEST NBA Picks for 10/29/25," claims the Lakers are favored by 3.5 points with a total near 229.5. That’s not just different — it’s baffling. No major sportsbook agrees. ESPN, DraftKings, BetUS, and FanDuel all show Minnesota as a 7-point favorite. The video’s claim may stem from a misread of early lines or a pre-injury projection. But it’s a reminder: in sports betting, noise matters. And right now, the noise says Minnesota is overvalued.
Also worth noting: LeBron James is out too. The Lakers’ three biggest names — Doncic, LeBron, and now Edwards — are all sidelined. That’s unprecedented. And yet, the Lakers are 1-1 since Doncic went down. That’s not luck. It’s depth. It’s coaching. It’s Reaves playing like a star.
What the Projections Say
The SportsLine Projection Model — which has returned over $10,000 in profit for $100 bettors over seven seasons — is on a 161-120 roll this season and went 24-11 against the spread last year. While they haven’t released their official pick for this game yet, their track record suggests they’ll lean toward the underdog. Why? Because when teams miss their top two scorers, the favorites often overextend. The Timberwolves have lost four straight ATS. The Lakers have covered in three of their last five.
And then there’s the rebounding angle. BetUS.com is pushing Deandre Ayton over 9.5 rebounds (-124). Why? Because Ayton had eight against Portland. And Minnesota’s frontcourt is thin. Jarred Vanderbilt is banged up. Rudy Gobert? He’s a defensive anchor, not a rebounding machine anymore. Ayton’s matchup is ripe.
What’s Next?
If the Lakers win this one — even by three — it could be the spark that turns their season. Reaves becomes a trade asset. The front office might reconsider their cap strategy. And if Minnesota loses again? The pressure on coach Chris Finch grows. Their playoff hopes are already slipping. Without Edwards, they’re a middle-tier team. And the West? It’s brutal.
This game isn’t about who’s favored. It’s about who steps up. And right now, the Lakers have a player doing exactly that.
Frequently Asked Questions
How does Austin Reaves’ performance impact the Lakers’ playoff chances without Luka Doncic?
Reaves’ surge — averaging 30.3 points over his last three games — gives the Lakers a legitimate scoring option beyond LeBron James. While Doncic’s absence hurts playmaking, Reaves’ ability to create his own shot and knock down threes (48% from deep) makes him a viable starter in a playoff rotation. If he maintains this level, the Lakers can remain competitive in the Western Conference, even without Doncic.
Why are the Timberwolves still favored despite missing Anthony Edwards?
Oddsmakers are relying on Minnesota’s defensive structure and the presence of Karl-Anthony Towns, who remains a high-volume scorer. But the 0-4 ATS record and recent 13-point home loss to Denver suggest the line is inflated. The market is overvaluing Minnesota’s depth and underestimating how much Edwards’ scoring and driving ability fuels their offense. Without him, they’re less dynamic and more predictable.
Is the over/under of 225.5 points too high given the injuries?
It’s borderline high. Both teams are missing their primary scorers — Edwards and Doncic — and neither has a reliable second option to replace them. Reaves is hot, but he’s not a volume shooter like Edwards. The Lakers’ pace has slowed without Doncic, and Minnesota’s defense is still top-10. The under is the smarter play, especially with both teams likely playing cautious offense to protect leads.
What does this game mean for the Western Conference standings?
A Lakers win would push them into the top 8 in the West, especially if other contenders stumble. A Timberwolves win keeps them in the 5-6 range, but their lack of depth makes them vulnerable. With the West having seven legitimate playoff teams, every win matters. This game could determine whether Minnesota is a contender or a team that peaked too early.
Why is the Wagertalk.com spread so different from other sportsbooks?
The Wagertalk.com claim of Lakers favored by 3.5 points contradicts all major sportsbooks and appears to be either an error, an outdated line, or a speculative take based on early betting trends before Edwards’ injury was fully priced in. No reputable source supports this line. The consensus — Timberwolves -7.5 — reflects the market’s assessment of both teams’ current rosters and recent performance.
Who should bet on this game, and what’s the smartest wager?
The smartest play is backing the Lakers +7.5 (-110). Minnesota’s ATS record and lack of scoring without Edwards make them unreliable coverers. Reaves over 29.5 points (-118) is a strong prop. For the total, the under 225.5 is the better value — both teams are playing slower, and defenses are still intact. Avoid the moneyline on Minnesota; the odds don’t justify the risk.
