On Saturday, November 22, 2025, at 8:00 pm Eastern Daylight Time, the Arizona State Sun Devils (7-3) will take on the Colorado Buffaloes (3-7) at Folsom Field in Boulder, Colorado — a game that feels less like a rivalry clash and more like a coronation in waiting. Arizona State enters as a 7-point favorite, with moneyline odds of -270, while Colorado sits at +220. The Arizona State vs Colorado football gameFolsom Field isn’t just another November contest — it’s the final regular season hurdle for both teams, and the stakes couldn’t be more different.
Why This Game Matters Beyond the Record
Arizona State’s 7-3 record looks solid, but it’s the how that’s telling. They’ve won seven of their last eight games, including a gritty 25-23 home win over West Virginia last week. Their offense, while ranked just 87th in scoring (24.7 points per game), is quietly efficient — especially in time of possession, where they rank 9th nationally. That’s not flashy, but it’s effective. They control the clock, chew up yards on the ground, and force defenses into fatigue. And Colorado’s defense? It’s a sieve. The Buffaloes allow 210.9 rushing yards per game — 132nd in the country. That’s not a typo. That’s a vulnerability Arizona State’s Raleek Brown and Jeff Sims will exploit like a pressure valve about to burst.Meanwhile, Colorado’s 3-7 record tells only half the story. Their offense is stagnant — 108th in scoring, 114th in total yards. But the real crisis is on defense. They give up 30 points a game and have lost three straight Big 12 games. And then there’s the elephant in the locker room: head coach Deion Sanders. Multiple reports, including from Picks and Pylons, suggest he has “one foot out the door.” That kind of uncertainty doesn’t just affect morale — it affects execution. Players are playing for their futures, not for a coach who may be gone by January.
The Quarterback Conundrum
Arizona State’s season took a hit when starter Sam Leavitt suffered a season-ending injury. Enter Jeff Sims — a dual-threat quarterback whose mobility keeps drives alive and defenses guessing. He’s not a prolific passer, but he’s smart, efficient, and rarely makes costly mistakes. That’s exactly what this game needs: control, not chaos.Colorado’s answer? Freshman Lewis. He’s raw. He’s energetic. He’s also thrown 11 interceptions this season. Against a Sun Devils defense that’s forced 12 turnovers (72nd nationally), that’s a recipe for disaster. The Buffaloes’ offensive line has struggled to protect him, and their run game averages just 122.1 yards per game — worse than Arizona State’s defense allows on average. This isn’t just a mismatch — it’s a trapdoor.
Betting Trends Tell a Clear Story
The numbers don’t lie. Arizona State has won all seven of their November games in the last three seasons. They’ve covered the spread in five straight road November games. Colorado? They’ve lost 11 straight November games as underdogs. Sure, they’ve won five of their last six November home games as underdogs — but only against unranked teams. Arizona State is ranked. And they’re hungry.Oddsmakers are split on the total. Fox Sports lists it at 47.5. Winners and Whiners and Stat Salt both lean toward 46.5. But here’s the twist: every major prediction model — from Fox Sports’ Data Skrive to Heartland Clip — expects a low-scoring, grinding affair. Why? Because Arizona State’s game plan isn’t to outscore Colorado. It’s to outlast them. Their average time of possession is nearly 32 minutes per game. Colorado’s? Under 27. That’s not just a stat — it’s a strategy.
Stat Salt says it best: “Neither offense has shown the consistency to push this game into a shootout.” And that’s exactly why the Under 46.5 is the sharpest play. Even if Arizona State scores 30, Colorado’s offense is unlikely to hit 20. Their last three games: 17, 22, and 22 points. All against teams worse than Arizona State’s defense.
What’s at Stake for Both Programs
For Arizona State, this game is a chance to finish the regular season strong — and maybe sneak into a New Year’s Six bowl if other results break their way. Head coach Kenny Dillingham has publicly committed to the program’s future. That’s rare these days. He’s building something here, and a win over a Power Five rival on the road would be a statement.For Colorado, it’s about dignity. A win here would be their first since October — and their first against a ranked opponent since 2023. But with Deion Sanders’ future uncertain and a freshman QB under siege, this feels less like a comeback story and more like a last gasp. The Buffaloes have covered the spread in nine of their last 10 home games against conference opponents — but none of those opponents had a top-10 time-of-possession offense. Arizona State does.
Final Prediction: Control Wins
The models are unanimous: Arizona State wins. Fox Sports predicts 30-20. Winners and Whiners expects 28-17. Picks and Pylons forecasts 31-17. Heartland Clip says 31-13. All agree on one thing: the Sun Devils will control the ball, punish the run defense, and limit Colorado’s chances.Final score: Arizona State 30, Colorado 17. The Sun Devils cover the 7-point spread. The total stays under 47.5. And Colorado? They’ll walk off the field wondering what went wrong — again.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why is Arizona State favored despite averaging only 24.7 points per game?
Arizona State’s strength isn’t explosive scoring — it’s consistency and control. They rank 9th nationally in time of possession, meaning they keep the ball away from Colorado’s weak offense. Their defense forces turnovers and limits big plays, making low-scoring, methodical wins their trademark. It’s not about points — it’s about keeping the opponent off the field.
How does Colorado’s rushing defense rank, and why is it a problem?
Colorado’s rushing defense ranks 132nd out of 134 FBS teams, allowing 210.9 yards per game. Arizona State’s Raleek Brown averages 78 yards per game on the ground and has four 100-yard games this season. This isn’t just a weakness — it’s a liability. If Arizona State runs the ball 40 times, Colorado won’t stop them.
What impact does Sam Leavitt’s injury have on Arizona State’s chances?
While Leavitt was the starter, his replacement Jeff Sims brings a different skill set — more mobility, less volatility. Sims has thrown only 3 interceptions in 10 games and is better suited to the Sun Devils’ ball-control style. The injury didn’t hurt their strategy — it reinforced it. They don’t need a superstar QB; they need someone who doesn’t lose the game.
Is Deion Sanders really leaving Colorado?
Multiple sources, including Picks and Pylons, report Sanders has “one foot out the door.” He’s been linked to NFL opportunities, and with Colorado’s poor record and recruiting struggles, his departure seems increasingly likely. That uncertainty has visibly affected team focus, especially among veteran players who may be preparing for a coaching change.
Why are experts leaning toward the Under despite Arizona State’s offensive stats?
Arizona State’s offense isn’t built for fireworks — it’s built for endurance. They average under 400 total yards per game and rarely throw deep. Colorado’s offense is even slower, averaging just 331 yards. With both teams struggling in the red zone and Colorado’s QB prone to turnovers, the game is more likely to be a grind than a shootout. The Under 46.5 has hit in 7 of Arizona State’s last 10 games.
Can Colorado cover the 7-point spread?
It’s unlikely. Colorado has failed to cover as an underdog in four of their last five games. Even when they’ve won as home underdogs, they’ve done so against unranked teams. Arizona State is 7-3, ranked, and playing for postseason positioning. The Buffaloes haven’t beaten a ranked team since 2023 — and their defense can’t contain a top-40 rushing attack. A 10-point loss is more probable than a 6-point one.
